plan for the American session on January 14 (analysis of morning deals). The breakout of 1.3649 has not yet formed a signal to enter long positions, but the bulls are trying



To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.3549 and recommended opening long positions from it in case of a certain scenario. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened in the morning. It is clearly seen how the bulls are trying to break through 1.3649, and then even a downward correction to this level occurs to form a buy signal. However, to my regret, the bulls were unable to hold this area, after which the market fell below, canceling all plans to enter long positions. Area 1.3649 is blurred and now it is difficult to navigate on it.

At the moment, trading is conducted around the level of 1.3649, and it is difficult to say where the movement will take place next. It is likely that the emphasis will be placed on the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, as well as the weekly data on the US labor market. Going beyond the forecast may put pressure on the dollar. The initial target of the bulls for the second half of the day remains the normal consolidation above the 1.3649 level, which will open a direct way to the area of ​​the annual high of 1.3701. However, it won’t be easy to count on a breakout of this range. Only the demolition of stop orders above 1.3701 will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls fail to properly take control of 1.3649 in the afternoon, and trading moves below this level, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.3590, from where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers are also not very active yet, as their target of 1.3649 was completely blurred in the first half of the day and it is difficult to say where the market will move further. The main task of the bears in the second half of the day will be to protect the resistance at 1.3701, however, only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of ​​intermediate support 1.3649. A return under this level with a test from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point into short positions, which may push GBP / USD into the area of ​​the 1.3590 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. If, after Jarom Powell’s speech, a breakdown of resistance 1.3701 occurs, then it is best to postpone short positions until the highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP / USD immediately on a rebound from resistance 1.3803, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5, a slight decrease in interest in the British pound was recorded, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the stabilization of the infection situation. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of ​​30 and 50 day averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market and some uncertainty with the direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3675 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3625 will increase the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.


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To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.3549 and recommended opening long positions from it in case of a certain scenario. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened in the morning. It is clearly seen how the bulls are trying to break through 1.3649, and then even a downward correction to this level occurs to form a buy signal. However, to my regret, the bulls were unable to hold this area, after which the market fell below, canceling all plans to enter long positions. Area 1.3649 is blurred and now it is difficult to navigate on it.

At the moment, trading is conducted around the level of 1.3649, and it is difficult to say where the movement will take place next. It is likely that the emphasis will be placed on the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, as well as the weekly data on the US labor market. Going beyond the forecast may put pressure on the dollar. The initial target of the bulls for the second half of the day remains the normal consolidation above the 1.3649 level, which will open a direct way to the area of ​​the annual high of 1.3701. However, it won’t be easy to count on a breakout of this range. Only the demolition of stop orders above 1.3701 will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls fail to properly take control of 1.3649 in the afternoon, and trading moves below this level, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.3590, from where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers are also not very active yet, as their target of 1.3649 was completely blurred in the first half of the day and it is difficult to say where the market will move further. The main task of the bears in the second half of the day will be to protect the resistance at 1.3701, however, only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of ​​intermediate support 1.3649. A return under this level with a test from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point into short positions, which may push GBP / USD into the area of ​​the 1.3590 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. If, after Jarom Powell’s speech, a breakdown of resistance 1.3701 occurs, then it is best to postpone short positions until the highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP / USD immediately on a rebound from resistance 1.3803, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5, a slight decrease in interest in the British pound was recorded, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the stabilization of the infection situation. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of ​​30 and 50 day averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market and some uncertainty with the direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3675 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3625 will increase the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.


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To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.3549 and recommended opening long positions from it in case of a certain scenario. Let’s take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened in the morning. It is clearly seen how the bulls are trying to break through 1.3649, and then even a downward correction to this level occurs to form a buy signal. However, to my regret, the bulls were unable to hold this area, after which the market fell below, canceling all plans to enter long positions. Area 1.3649 is blurred and now it is difficult to navigate on it.

At the moment, trading is conducted around the level of 1.3649, and it is difficult to say where the movement will take place next. It is likely that the emphasis will be placed on the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, as well as the weekly data on the US labor market. Going beyond the forecast may put pressure on the dollar. The initial target of the bulls for the second half of the day remains the normal consolidation above the 1.3649 level, which will open a direct way to the area of ​​the annual high of 1.3701. However, it won’t be easy to count on a breakout of this range. Only the demolition of stop orders above 1.3701 will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls fail to properly take control of 1.3649 in the afternoon, and trading moves below this level, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.3590, from where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers are also not very active yet, as their target of 1.3649 was completely blurred in the first half of the day and it is difficult to say where the market will move further. The main task of the bears in the second half of the day will be to protect the resistance at 1.3701, however, only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of ​​intermediate support 1.3649. A return under this level with a test from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point into short positions, which may push GBP / USD into the area of ​​the 1.3590 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. If, after Jarom Powell’s speech, a breakdown of resistance 1.3701 occurs, then it is best to postpone short positions until the highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP / USD immediately on a rebound from resistance 1.3803, counting on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5, a slight decrease in interest in the British pound was recorded, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the stabilization of the infection situation. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of ​​30 and 50 day averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market and some uncertainty with the direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3675 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3625 will increase the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.





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