plan for the American session on January 13 (analysis of morning deals). The excitement subsided, and the bulls failed to break above the annual high, retreating from the market



To open long positions in GBP / USD you need:

Several unsuccessful attempts of the bulls to get above the resistance of 1.3701, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, led to the formation of a signal to sell the pound. On the 5 minute chart, I highlighted the areas where the signal was generated and where it was confirmed. At the time of this writing, the downward movement was about 45 points, after which the pound’s decline slowed down. We fell short of just a few points to the level of 1.3649, where I recommended taking profits.

Taking into account that in the first half of the day the pair did not leave the trading range 1.3649-1.3701, and the large growth of the pound slowed down after yesterday’s upward dynamics, the emphasis for buyers and sellers remained the same. Let me remind you that the upward trend was formed after the news that the Bank of England abandoned the idea of ​​resorting to the introduction of negative interest rates due to their negative impact on the British banking system. The initial target of the bulls remains to break and consolidate above this year’s high at 1.3701, which may lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders. This scenario will only spur the pound to a larger upward trend already in the area of ​​1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profit. If, by analogy with the morning scenario, there will be no active purchases after the 1.3701 maximum has been updated, it is better not to rush with long positions. In this case, you need to wait for the release of inflation data in the US, and then make a decision. In case of a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.3649, only the formation of a false breakout will generate a signal to enter the market. If there is no activity from the bulls there, I recommend postponing long positions until the larger support 1.3590, which was formed yesterday in the morning, is renewed. Moving averages also pass there, so you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

The sellers coped with the morning task and did not let the pair go above the resistance level 1.3701. In the second half of the day, the bears will try to prevent the growth of GBP / USD above the resistance of 1.3701, however, only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of ​​intermediate support at 1.3649, to which the pound fell just a couple of points today. An equally important task for sellers will be to break and consolidate below this range, the test of which from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point for short positions, which will quickly push GBP / USD to the 1.3590 low, where I recommend taking profits. If, after weak data on inflation in the US and the growth of the pound to the resistance area of ​​1.3701, there is no activity on the part of sellers, in this case, it is best to postpone short positions until the highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP / USD immediately upon a rebound from resistance 1.3803 based on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5, a slight decrease in interest in the British pound was recorded, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37 550 to 35 526. At the same time, short non-commercial remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31 518 to 31 861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection situation stabilizes. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3594 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator at 1.3535.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.


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To open long positions in GBP / USD you need:

Several unsuccessful attempts of the bulls to get above the resistance of 1.3701, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, led to the formation of a signal to sell the pound. On the 5 minute chart, I highlighted the areas where the signal was generated and where it was confirmed. At the time of this writing, the downward movement was about 45 points, after which the pound’s decline slowed down. We fell short of just a few points to the level of 1.3649, where I recommended taking profits.

Taking into account that in the first half of the day the pair did not leave the trading range 1.3649-1.3701, and the large growth of the pound slowed down after yesterday’s upward dynamics, the emphasis for buyers and sellers remained the same. Let me remind you that the upward trend was formed after the news that the Bank of England abandoned the idea of ​​resorting to the introduction of negative interest rates due to their negative impact on the British banking system. The initial target of the bulls remains to break and consolidate above this year’s high at 1.3701, which may lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders. This scenario will only spur the pound to a larger upward trend already in the area of ​​1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profit. If, by analogy with the morning scenario, there will be no active purchases after the 1.3701 maximum has been updated, it is better not to rush with long positions. In this case, you need to wait for the release of inflation data in the US, and then make a decision. In case of a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.3649, only the formation of a false breakout will generate a signal to enter the market. If there is no activity from the bulls there, I recommend postponing long positions until the larger support 1.3590, which was formed yesterday in the morning, is renewed. Moving averages also pass there, so you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

The sellers coped with the morning task and did not let the pair go above the resistance level 1.3701. In the second half of the day, the bears will try to prevent the growth of GBP / USD above the resistance of 1.3701, however, only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of ​​intermediate support at 1.3649, to which the pound fell just a couple of points today. An equally important task for sellers will be to break and consolidate below this range, the test of which from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point for short positions, which will quickly push GBP / USD to the 1.3590 low, where I recommend taking profits. If, after weak data on inflation in the US and the growth of the pound to the resistance area of ​​1.3701, there is no activity on the part of sellers, in this case, it is best to postpone short positions until the highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP / USD immediately upon a rebound from resistance 1.3803 based on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5, a slight decrease in interest in the British pound was recorded, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37 550 to 35 526. At the same time, short non-commercial remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31 518 to 31 861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection situation stabilizes. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3594 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator at 1.3535.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.


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To open long positions in GBP / USD you need:

Several unsuccessful attempts of the bulls to get above the resistance of 1.3701, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, led to the formation of a signal to sell the pound. On the 5 minute chart, I highlighted the areas where the signal was generated and where it was confirmed. At the time of this writing, the downward movement was about 45 points, after which the pound’s decline slowed down. We fell short of just a few points to the level of 1.3649, where I recommended taking profits.

Taking into account that in the first half of the day the pair did not leave the trading range 1.3649-1.3701, and the large growth of the pound slowed down after yesterday’s upward dynamics, the emphasis for buyers and sellers remained the same. Let me remind you that the upward trend was formed after the news that the Bank of England abandoned the idea of ​​resorting to the introduction of negative interest rates due to their negative impact on the British banking system. The initial target of the bulls remains to break and consolidate above this year’s high at 1.3701, which may lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders. This scenario will only spur the pound to a larger upward trend already in the area of ​​1.3750 and 1.3803, where I recommend taking profit. If, by analogy with the morning scenario, there will be no active purchases after the 1.3701 maximum has been updated, it is better not to rush with long positions. In this case, you need to wait for the release of inflation data in the US, and then make a decision. In case of a downward correction to the support area of ​​1.3649, only the formation of a false breakout will generate a signal to enter the market. If there is no activity from the bulls there, I recommend postponing long positions until the larger support 1.3590, which was formed yesterday in the morning, is renewed. Moving averages also pass there, so you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

The sellers coped with the morning task and did not let the pair go above the resistance level 1.3701. In the second half of the day, the bears will try to prevent the growth of GBP / USD above the resistance of 1.3701, however, only the formation of a false breakout there generates a signal to open short positions with the aim of a downward correction to the area of ​​intermediate support at 1.3649, to which the pound fell just a couple of points today. An equally important task for sellers will be to break and consolidate below this range, the test of which from the bottom up forms a convenient entry point for short positions, which will quickly push GBP / USD to the 1.3590 low, where I recommend taking profits. If, after weak data on inflation in the US and the growth of the pound to the resistance area of ​​1.3701, there is no activity on the part of sellers, in this case, it is best to postpone short positions until the highs are renewed in the 1.3750 area, or to sell GBP / USD immediately upon a rebound from resistance 1.3803 based on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5, a slight decrease in interest in the British pound was recorded, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37 550 to 35 526. At the same time, short non-commercial remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31 518 to 31 861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection situation stabilizes. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.3594 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator at 1.3535.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.





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