plan for the American session on December 29 (analysis of morning deals). The euro is again trading near the level of 1.2254, and again no one needs there



To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level 1.2254 and recommended to act from it. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears have formed a good signal to open short positions from the level of 1.2254, creating a false breakout there. The signal is still valid. Until the moment when trading is carried out below 1.2254, we can expect a decline in the euro. It is also convenient to place a small stop loss for today’s highs.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it has not changed compared to the morning forecast, except for the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to get out above the resistance of 1.2254. In the scenario of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, major players will continue to focus on protecting the support at 1.2217. Only the formation of a false breakout there will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the euro. However, given the lack of important fundamental statistics and the low trading volume in the last week before the New Year, one can not count on serious activity in the 1.2217 area. In the absence of any action at the level of 1.2217, I recommend postponing long positions until the larger support level of 1.2174 is updated, or buying EUR / USD immediately after rebounding from last week’s minimum at 1.2130, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. It will be possible to say that the buyers of the euro managed to resume the upward trend only after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2254, which once again the bulls failed to achieve today during the Asian session. However, only a top-down test of this level forms an additional signal to open long positions in euros with the main target of updating the highs of 1.2304 and 1.2339, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The sellers of the euro successfully showed themselves in the resistance area of ​​1.2254 and formed a false breakout there, additionally generating a signal to enter the market in short positions. The main target now is to return to support 1.2217, which is the middle of the sideways channel. However, only consolidation below this range with a test from the bottom up will open a direct road to the area of ​​the minimum 1.2174, where I recommend taking profits. The absence of important fundamental statistics today will also affect the trading volume, so volatility can be quite unpredictable. The further target of the bears will be the level 1.2130, the test of which will mean a reversal of the current upward trend. If the bulls find the strength and manage to get out above the resistance of 1.2254, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario would be a test of the 1.2304 maximum, from where you can sell EUR / USD immediately on a rebound, counting on the pair’s correction down by 20-25 points.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for December 21 recorded an increase in short positions and an increase in long positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bull market amid news that vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus has begun in Europe. However, due to the quarantine measures taken after the detection of a new Covid-19 strain that appeared recently in the UK, there are still quite a few problems. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 218,710 to 222,443, while short non-commercial positions jumped to 78,541 against 76,877. The total non-commercial net position rose to 143,902 from 141,833 a week earlier. Delta growth has resumed, but is unlikely to continue at the end of this year, as the trading volume will be rather low. Therefore, one should not count on the rapid growth of the euro this week, although low trading volume may lead to a surge in volatility.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for euro buyers

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2195. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2254 will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.


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To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level 1.2254 and recommended to act from it. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears have formed a good signal to open short positions from the level of 1.2254, creating a false breakout there. The signal is still valid. Until the moment when trading is carried out below 1.2254, we can expect a decline in the euro. It is also convenient to place a small stop loss for today’s highs.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it has not changed compared to the morning forecast, except for the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to get out above the resistance of 1.2254. In the scenario of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, major players will continue to focus on protecting the support at 1.2217. Only the formation of a false breakout there will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the euro. However, given the lack of important fundamental statistics and the low trading volume in the last week before the New Year, one can not count on serious activity in the 1.2217 area. In the absence of any action at the level of 1.2217, I recommend postponing long positions until the larger support level of 1.2174 is updated, or buying EUR / USD immediately after rebounding from last week’s minimum at 1.2130, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. It will be possible to say that the buyers of the euro managed to resume the upward trend only after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2254, which once again the bulls failed to achieve today during the Asian session. However, only a top-down test of this level forms an additional signal to open long positions in euros with the main target of updating the highs of 1.2304 and 1.2339, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The sellers of the euro successfully showed themselves in the resistance area of ​​1.2254 and formed a false breakout there, additionally generating a signal to enter the market in short positions. The main target now is to return to support 1.2217, which is the middle of the sideways channel. However, only consolidation below this range with a test from the bottom up will open a direct road to the area of ​​the minimum 1.2174, where I recommend taking profits. The absence of important fundamental statistics today will also affect the trading volume, so volatility can be quite unpredictable. The further target of the bears will be the level 1.2130, the test of which will mean a reversal of the current upward trend. If the bulls find the strength and manage to get out above the resistance of 1.2254, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario would be a test of the 1.2304 maximum, from where you can sell EUR / USD immediately on a rebound, counting on the pair’s correction down by 20-25 points.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for December 21 recorded an increase in short positions and an increase in long positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bull market amid news that vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus has begun in Europe. However, due to the quarantine measures taken after the detection of a new Covid-19 strain that appeared recently in the UK, there are still quite a few problems. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 218,710 to 222,443, while short non-commercial positions jumped to 78,541 against 76,877. The total non-commercial net position rose to 143,902 from 141,833 a week earlier. Delta growth has resumed, but is unlikely to continue at the end of this year, as the trading volume will be rather low. Therefore, one should not count on the rapid growth of the euro this week, although low trading volume may lead to a surge in volatility.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for euro buyers

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2195. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2254 will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.


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To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level 1.2254 and recommended to act from it. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears have formed a good signal to open short positions from the level of 1.2254, creating a false breakout there. The signal is still valid. Until the moment when trading is carried out below 1.2254, we can expect a decline in the euro. It is also convenient to place a small stop loss for today’s highs.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it has not changed compared to the morning forecast, except for the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to get out above the resistance of 1.2254. In the scenario of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, major players will continue to focus on protecting the support at 1.2217. Only the formation of a false breakout there will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the euro. However, given the lack of important fundamental statistics and the low trading volume in the last week before the New Year, one can not count on serious activity in the 1.2217 area. In the absence of any action at the level of 1.2217, I recommend postponing long positions until the larger support level of 1.2174 is updated, or buying EUR / USD immediately after rebounding from last week’s minimum at 1.2130, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. It will be possible to say that the buyers of the euro managed to resume the upward trend only after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2254, which once again the bulls failed to achieve today during the Asian session. However, only a top-down test of this level forms an additional signal to open long positions in euros with the main target of updating the highs of 1.2304 and 1.2339, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The sellers of the euro successfully showed themselves in the resistance area of ​​1.2254 and formed a false breakout there, additionally generating a signal to enter the market in short positions. The main target now is to return to support 1.2217, which is the middle of the sideways channel. However, only consolidation below this range with a test from the bottom up will open a direct road to the area of ​​the minimum 1.2174, where I recommend taking profits. The absence of important fundamental statistics today will also affect the trading volume, so volatility can be quite unpredictable. The further target of the bears will be the level 1.2130, the test of which will mean a reversal of the current upward trend. If the bulls find the strength and manage to get out above the resistance of 1.2254, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario would be a test of the 1.2304 maximum, from where you can sell EUR / USD immediately on a rebound, counting on the pair’s correction down by 20-25 points.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with my video forecast for today.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for December 21 recorded an increase in short positions and an increase in long positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bull market amid news that vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus has begun in Europe. However, due to the quarantine measures taken after the detection of a new Covid-19 strain that appeared recently in the UK, there are still quite a few problems. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 218,710 to 222,443, while short non-commercial positions jumped to 78,541 against 76,877. The total non-commercial net position rose to 143,902 from 141,833 a week earlier. Delta growth has resumed, but is unlikely to continue at the end of this year, as the trading volume will be rather low. Therefore, one should not count on the rapid growth of the euro this week, although low trading volume may lead to a surge in volatility.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for euro buyers

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2195. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of ​​1.2254 will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • Indicator MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.





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