Credit Suisse expects the ruble to strengthen to RUB 65-70 in 2021. per US dollar – Rambler / finance



The ruble in 2021 will strengthen to a fundamentally justified level of 65-70 rubles. per US dollar. Such forecasts are contained in the new economic survey of Credit Suisse.

“We expect the ruble to return to its fundamentally sound level in 2021. In our opinion, its weakness was caused by temporary factors,” the bank’s experts believe.

The reason for the weakness of the national currency was a combination of several factors, they explained. Among them – the intention of the Russian government to revise tax agreements with offshore countries, as well as a sharp increase in the money supply (the growth of cash and non-cash funds (M2) from the beginning of 2020 to October accelerated from 10.2% to 16.2% year-on-year).

The expert recommended the Russians “stay away from the dollar”

“The first factor provoked an outflow of capital, and the second created favorable conditions for such an outflow,” the bank noted, adding that the main sources of increase in the money supply were the operations of the federal budget and the specifics of financing the deficit in the second quarter, when the state profited from the privatization of Sberbank (about 1% of GDP).

“Instead of compensating for this increase in ruble liquidity with foreign exchange sales, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation postponed its operations on the open market until Q4, also offsetting them with foreign exchange purchases deferred from 2018. In our opinion, this created an additional imbalance in the local foreign exchange market. in our opinion, this imbalance was temporary and will come to naught in 2021 “, – explained in Credit Suisse.

The pause in easing monetary policy from September 2020 also had an additional negative impact on the Russian currency, the company added.

Video of the day. Russians will be able to receive a pension in any EAEU country

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The ruble in 2021 will strengthen to a fundamentally justified level of 65-70 rubles. per US dollar. Such forecasts are contained in the new economic survey of Credit Suisse.

“We expect the ruble to return to its fundamentally sound level in 2021. In our opinion, its weakness was caused by temporary factors,” the bank’s experts believe.

The reason for the weakness of the national currency was a combination of several factors, they explained. Among them – the intention of the Russian government to revise tax agreements with offshore countries, as well as a sharp increase in the money supply (the growth of cash and non-cash funds (M2) from the beginning of 2020 to October accelerated from 10.2% to 16.2% year-on-year).

The expert recommended the Russians “stay away from the dollar”

“The first factor provoked an outflow of capital, and the second created favorable conditions for such an outflow,” the bank noted, adding that the main sources of increase in the money supply were the operations of the federal budget and the specifics of financing the deficit in the second quarter, when the state profited from the privatization of Sberbank (about 1% of GDP).

“Instead of compensating for this increase in ruble liquidity with foreign exchange sales, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation postponed its operations on the open market until Q4, also offsetting them with foreign exchange purchases deferred from 2018. In our opinion, this created an additional imbalance in the local foreign exchange market. in our opinion, this imbalance was temporary and will come to naught in 2021 “, – explained in Credit Suisse.

The pause in easing monetary policy from September 2020 also had an additional negative impact on the Russian currency, the company added.

Video of the day. Russians will be able to receive a pension in any EAEU country

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The ruble in 2021 will strengthen to a fundamentally justified level of 65-70 rubles. per US dollar. Such forecasts are contained in the new economic survey of Credit Suisse.

“We expect the ruble to return to its fundamentally sound level in 2021. In our opinion, its weakness was caused by temporary factors,” the bank’s experts believe.

The reason for the weakness of the national currency was a combination of several factors, they explained. Among them – the intention of the Russian government to revise tax agreements with offshore countries, as well as a sharp increase in the money supply (the growth of cash and non-cash funds (M2) from the beginning of 2020 to October accelerated from 10.2% to 16.2% year-on-year).

The expert recommended the Russians “stay away from the dollar”

“The first factor provoked an outflow of capital, and the second created favorable conditions for such an outflow,” the bank noted, adding that the main sources of increase in the money supply were the operations of the federal budget and the specifics of financing the deficit in the second quarter, when the state profited from the privatization of Sberbank (about 1% of GDP).

“Instead of compensating for this increase in ruble liquidity with foreign exchange sales, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation postponed its operations on the open market until Q4, also offsetting them with foreign exchange purchases deferred from 2018. In our opinion, this created an additional imbalance in the local foreign exchange market. in our opinion, this imbalance was temporary and will come to naught in 2021 “, – explained in Credit Suisse.

The pause in easing monetary policy from September 2020 also had an additional negative impact on the Russian currency, the company added.

Video of the day. Russians will be able to receive a pension in any EAEU country




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